NCAA Tournament Hosting Picture: How the contenders stack up in latest Field of 64 projections
On Monday, we released our updated Field of 64 projections as we try to predict how the NCAA Tournament will look in college baseball, and the hosting line saw some changes. Just four weeks remain in the regular season, and then conference tournaments will get underway.
16 teams will host a regional in the NCAA Tournament. Each regional will be a four-team pod, with a double elimination tournament determining a winner in each. The final team standing in each regional will advance to super regionals, which would be hosted by the top eight seeds should they advance.
This week, we are projecting some changes on the NCAA Tournament hosting line. There are two new teams that snuck into the top 16, while others came extremely close to doing the same.
There is obviously a lot that can change over the final weeks of the regular season. But right now, this is how we see the hosting race.
Current top 8 hosts in projected NCAA Tournament
Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State, East Carolina, North Carolina
Right now, the top five seeds seem fairly set in stone. It would be surprising if Texas A&M (35-5, 13-5 in SEC, No. 1 RPI), Arkansas (34-6, 14-4 in SEC, No. 2 RPI), Clemson (32-7, 13-5 in ACC, No. 4 RPI), Tennessee (33-7, 12-6 in SEC, No. 6 RPI) or Kentucky (32-7, 15-3 in SEC, No. 3 RPI) fell much further than that. Those five teams make up five of the top six in current RPI, with Florida State (31-8, 11-7 in ACC) sitting at No. 5.
The Seminoles still sit in a good position to be a top eight host, too, and come in at No. 6. The final two spots are currently held by a pair of in-state foes, East Carolina and North Carolina. ECU (31-8, 11-4 in AAC, No. 8 RPI) currently gets the slide edge over UNC (30-10, 15-6 in ACC, No. 7 RPI) largely due to their head-to-head series victory.
Other top 8 contenders
Oregon State, Wake Forest, Coastal Carolina, Virginia, Oklahoma
Oregon State is the most notable team not included in the top eight. The Beavers (30-9, 10-7 in Pac-12, No. 15 RPI) have been a top eight in each of our projections thus far. They struggled last week in a sweep against Cal, but have opportunities (notably Oregon and at Arizona) to make up ground down the stretch.
Wake Forest finishes right there at No. 10, too, after a series win over Florida State. The Demon Deacons need to keep winning to slide into top eight range, but they’re currently 26-13, 11-10 in the ACC and No. 9 in RPI and in a good spot.
Coastal Carolina wasn’t hosting in last week’s projections, but their weekend series victory over Louisiana has them right back in the mix. We have them right there in the mix to be a top eight host, with a 27-12 overall record, 11-7 Sun Belt Record and No. 13 RPI. They might not win the Sun Belt, as Louisiana still sits in the top spot, but the Chanticleers have serious upside if they continue their roll.
Virginia and Oklahoma could both factor into the top eight discussion, too. Virginia is 30-11, 12-9 in the ACC and No. 16 in RPI, and has Boston College (RPI 57), NC State (RPI 29), and Virginia Tech (RPI 37) left on their weekend schedule. Oklahoma has taken the lead in the Big 12, and the Sooners are 24-14, 14-4 in league play and No. 22 in RPI. They are likely to keep rising if they keep winning, and they have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Both Virginia and Oklahoma would need help, but they can’t be ruled out.
Remaining projected hosts
Indiana State, Duke, Vanderbilt
Indiana State is a pretty safe bet to host right now. The Sycamores are 29-8, 12-3 in the Missouri Valley and No. 10 in RPI. Their main issue is the lack of RPI opportunities left. Their remaining weekends are against Southern Illinois (RPI 144), Belmont (RPI 132), Evansville (RPI 109), and Valparaiso (RPI 227). Even a slight stumble could have Indiana State trending downwards, but they should be fine even with a limited RPI upside.
Duke is also a safe bet to host. The Blue Devils are 29-11, 13-8 in the ACC and No. 21 in RPI, which is a tad below where it needs to be. Duke finishes the year with Florida State (RPI 5), Georgia Tech (RPI 61) and North Carolina (RPI 7), so their path is pretty straightforward. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is in trouble. The Commodores snuck in as our final host this week, sitting at 29-11, 10-8 in the SEC and No. 18 in RPI. That RPI is too low to 100% lock them in, and they have a tough finish to the year in the SEC. Vanderbilt has little room for error on the hosting bubble, but they get the nod as of today.
Other teams fighting to host in NCAA Tournament
South Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Georgia, Dallas Baptist, Nebraska
The final hosting spot essentially came down to Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Alabama. South Carolina is 27-13, 9-9 in the SEC and No. 14 in RPI. Alabama is 25-15, 7-11 in the SEC and No. 20 in RPI. The Gamecocks finish the year with Kentucky (RPI 3), Missouri (RPI 94), Georgia (RPI 11) and Tennessee (6), which is a tough but manageable stretch. Alabama has a much more favorable schedule down the stretch, finishing with Ole Miss (RPI 24), Mississippi State (RPI 45), LSU (RPI 39) and Auburn (RPI 44). While the Crimson Tide are currently 7-11 in the SEC, if they go on a run they will be in a pretty strong position to host.
Oklahoma State (26-14, 11-7 in Big 12, RPI 25) and West Virginia (23-16, 11-7 in Big 12, RPI 33) were both considered, but both fell short with Oklahoma getting the nod as our Big 12 winner. Neither have an RPI strong enough right now to host, but if they went on a run that ended with them winning the Big 12, they’d likely be right there.
UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara are also in the mix, both from the Big West. UC Irvine is 28-8, 11-4 in the Big West and RPI No. 26. UC Santa Barbara is 25-10, 11-4 in the Big West and No. 12 RPI. The main issue for both is a truly brutal end to the season, not in difficulty of opponents but in RPI opportunities. Their margin of error is essentially zero.
Georgia, Dallas Baptist and Nebraska could also factor in. The Bulldogs have RPI No. 11, and are 29-10 overall and 9-9 in the SEC. They finish with Texas A&M (RPI 1)m Vanderbilt (RPI 18), South Carolina (14) and Florida (RPI 35), giving them a clear path to hosting. Just win. Dallas Baptist is on a downward trend, with three straight weekend series losses. They could still sneak back into it if they get on a roll, currently sitting at No. 17 in RPI. Nebraska is in a similar boat at 25-12, 8-4 in the Big Ten and No. 19 RPI. They don’t have a large margin of error, but the Cornhuskers could battle for that final stretch if they get hot to end the year.